129667837469052892_412Penghua Fund invites you to attention since last year, why the a-share trend and macroeconomic performance deviation in China? This issue has become a market at home and abroad about a topic. Specifically, the a-share market performance was "not satisfactory", and economic growth in terms of data forming greater contrast. Why is there "economies heat" and "Stock market cold "asymmetry?
Author attempted to three ways to explain why. One reason: to date, the a-share market was not so much reflect China's macro-level changes, that is much more adequately reflects the anticipated changes and adjustments of macro-policy results.
This has contributed to the a-share trend away from the macroeconomic side one of the important reasons. In 2010, ChinaEconomic performance is quite bright for full year GDP grew by 10.3%, especially four-quarter GDP grew by 9.8%, this heralds China's economy is expected to return to the faster-growing phase, despite current inflationary pressure is still more significant. Compared with the current situation of high economic growth in China, the a-share market in the world in 2010 after the market ranking among the columns, extreme contrast。 The a-share market was difficult to reflect macroeconomic, because the a-share market has never been concerned only with macroeconomic changes raises larger adjustment of macro-policies. For example, the second quarter of last year, concerns economic growth will decline in the second half of the market risk, and some even called for countries should be further stimulus policies. Inflationary pressure suddenly increased after four quarters,Faster-growing economic austerity policies to restrain inflation data has become fully justified. This shows that, so far, the a-share market is more concerned about whether the macro-level changes will lead to larger adjustment of macro-policy.
Or, rather, macroeconomic policy changes larger than the effect of macro-level changes on a-share market. Indeed, despite the current macroeconomic stability to be good
swtor power leveling, butReturn to general economic growth in China since last year and inflation pressures appeared again, triggering a larger adjustment of macro-policies, especially monetary policy to gradually shift the contraction, has revolutionized the market trends investors expected, adding to the a-share trends and degree of deviation of macroeconomic. The a-share market performance of the "cold" and macro data show the economy so "hot" is so"Hold".
Reason two: shares trend to deviate from the macroeconomic side is because supply and demand shift in the a-share markets since last year, resulting in funding (internal and external mobility) to replace the macroeconomic effects become important factors in a share movements. Looking back on the course of the a-share markets found that once the a-share market supply and demand imbalance occurs, the a-share movements tend toDownward trend.
The reason, but the stock supply continued to remain high, affecting the relationship between supply and demand of the a-share market, sustainable increase of the amount of liquidity it is difficult to undertake financial pressure, which is leading a-share trend has one of the main causes of poor performance. Judging from current statistics, 2010 there were 10,275 531 companies in the a-share market financing.$ 200 million, which first 347 financing of $, its a-share market financing lines of all-time.
This is bound to attract to the liquidity of the stock, resulting in a share trend continued under pressure, the a-share market in particular, the market is constantly undervalued blue chip earnings levels, and high growth in 2010, China's economic contrasts. This phenomenon shows that, in the freightCurrency policy is a contraction of case, expectations of a continued contraction of funds more larger than the effect of macro-economic trend of a-shares.
Similarly, changes in supply and demand relationship within the a-share market, adding to the "stock market cold" to "economies heat" that matches the contradictions and conflicts. Reason three: a shares trends in 2010 was the poor performance is actually marketingConvergence of transactions operations results. Regardless of the macroeconomic, trends in investment rather than value investing occupy the mainstream, is also a share trend away from the macroeconomic side one of the important reasons. Trend of investment tend to trade as market trends change, particularly macro policies, including industry, regional development
the old republic power leveling, to trade adjustment projected changes. However, morePotential investments tend to ignore the macro-policy adjustments to macroeconomic changes the value of investment in real terms in connotation, but more attention to the policy aroused by regulating trading opportunities. Macroeconomic impact of this transaction, investment or trend "trial and error-correction" transactions, increased turbulence and volatility in the a-share market and led the a-share investors are more focused on macro-policy adjustment of structureSex trade opportunities, rather than concerned with macroeconomic itself changes in potential value investment opportunities. When the trend of investment rather than occupy a-share market value investment status, under the macro-policy change rather than the macro-level changes to stock transactions, become a major trading characteristics of the a-share market, which is also one of the a shares deviate from the direct cause of macroeconomic.
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