are positive

In October, China's foreign exchange accounts for incremental growth for the first time since a 46-month, one-month decrease of 24.892 billion yuan. Last month Foreign Exchange account for negative growth was ahead of the December 2007 financial crisis, it is caused due to the hot money return in developed countries.　　The negative growth of foreign exchange for China's bubble economy means what? Hot-running lead to negativeThe next stock inflow of funds (eleven-twenty fifths) unit fled to cut meat must regret having sudden boom is not likely in a move investors Gospel: hold stocks saved! China's foreign exchange accounts for increments is usually made up of two pieces: the trade surplus and foreign direct investment (FDI) growth, on the other hand was not to be interpreted in part, namely the international hot money. In October17 billion dollar surplus in China and US $ 8.3 billion FDI, are positive, but foreign exchange accounts for why negative?　　The main reason is that outflow of hot money. In fact, there are signs of withdrawal of hot money as early as September this year. On September 22, one year of NDF (the US dollar against renminbi non-deliverable forwards) there was heavy selling of the contract, to close higher 730 basis points to 6.427, reflecting the single currency expected to depreciate bulls expect. The end of October, in Hong Kong and the mainland market of RMB exchange rate inverted, period, including $ BOC Hong Kong such a body did not sell off positions.　　This series heralded the negative growth in October, China's foreign exchange. Since its currency, the dollar has been thereAppreciation of the high expectations. Carry trade overseas hot money betting on Yuan revaluation caused, large amounts of money into China leading to exchange money occupation remain high. While some financial institutions and enterprises in China are also carrying out arbitrage. Duiwaijingmaodaxue said in an interview with the weekly red Professor Ding zhijie, "the end of June 2011, foreign exchange assets less liabilities of financial institutions and enterprises,Inch negative. Indicate that enterprises not only in the past sold it to the Bank of foreign exchange earnings, also borrowed from overseas removals and then sold to the Central Bank ". And now because of dollar liquidity in the international market is extremely nervous and RMB's appreciation pressure weakened, leading overseas hot money return, those who borrow meeting institutions had to return $, United States after August money supply data boost is also supported. Of course, under the property marketFall is also grounds for withdrawal of funds from overseas, "the past few years, get a windfall of overseas hot money mainly in real estate market, when aware of China's real estate development limited swtor power leveling, many hot money comes, wanted to POT."　　Guangdong Province, Li youhuan, Director of development of Social Science Research Center (microblogging) said to the magazine.　　History will repeat itself? In December 2007 the Exchange account for increasedAfter a long, feixie a-share market from 6,124 points, particularly from the September 2008 continued outflow, the entire outflow of hot money around US $ 120 billion, ~1400 billion in the four quarter. After all these foreign exchange accounts for 46 months again negative, is this is the beginning of a new round of economic downturn? HSBC PMI released this week added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first three quarters of all extensionsContinued momentum of the economic slowdown.　　This is a repetition of history swtor credits, please? Both the background is quite different. Four years ago, the international financial market liquidity is relatively lax. Hot money is relatively high degree of risk preference, then recall is based on the global economic crisis. After 2008 risk aversion persists for a sharp reduction in the risk tolerance of hot money, since the beginning of this year's United States risk indexVIX has been at a high level, which led to economic problems will cause flight capital back each time. Hong Yuan securities macro-analysis Division Qin Peijing magazine said that in the case of large changes in the amount of currency is not, reconfiguration of global capital, understandably, does not have to worry too much. The outflow of hot money does not demonstrate that the real economy in China is very bad. Ding zhijie believed that the hot moneyOutflow to China economic situation in the future and cannot be seen as a weak signal. Or force the deposit down foreign exchange accounts for under 10 years are the main channel of the basic money supply in China. This year, each formed 30 million dollars will improve Central Bank's foreign exchange reserve to hedge against foreign exchange increase. Large inflows of foreign exchange also kidnapped meMonetary policy of the State, making it lack of independence. From the reporter interviewed a number of experts, negative growth in foreign exchange in the near future with a certain degree of continuity, but most will not continue in the first quarter of next year. Due to the significant impact on foreign exchange surpluses in the future will continue to decline over time, exchange money occupation Delta hub will decline, monthly data of the wave hub will not as beforeKeep more than 200 billion yuan, thus increasing the independence of the Central Bank's monetary policy. "Hot money outflow pressure reducing China's monetary policy, may be the increase in the fine tuning or appear much in advance. "Li youhuan said. HSBC PMI initial value rapidly fell to 48 on Wednesday, the preview value last month declined 3 points, in particular the index of output and new ordersIndex is significantly down, showing insufficient power of supporting small and medium-sized manufacturing recovery. Although the Central Bank on Thursday denied that the 5 institutions in Zhejiang rural credit system lowered deposit rates is a comprehensive system of cut bank deposit reserve rate signal, but the Central Bank still has greatly reduced the space saved. Standard Chartered Bank China Economist at Standard Chartered said the Government likely before the end of lower reserve requirementsRate, but will be launched before the Spring Festival. Even the Central Bank will not cut deposit during the year, but also through the adjustment of monetary aggregate supply of open market operations, and fine-tune the efforts than previously to be.