faster growth

Shi Weixiang the past two years, we put forward some propositions in the policy research and market validation: 1, early in 2010 said the stock market will be very afraid of inflation, not to follow the growth. 2 game of the contrary, 2010 second-quarter economic growth, faster growth, the stock market fall; small caps outperform unit is proposed a long cycle phenomenon. 3, 2010Make cycle and transition in the second half, without addressing the transformation problem, cycle unit is not worthwhile. We talked about the banks ' bad loans, shall be continued and the pressure of high investment pessimism. And 4 that if non-periodic explanations economy, Hayek's monetary business cycle theory is the most reliable, not with approval cycle and political cycle. The first half of 2011 isStocks continued to drop. 5, since the second half, we observe the strategic intent of the policy, see real estate regulation framework, see the local debt credit key challenges, see the transformation of local government attempts, see the forced regeneration of small enterprises in Zhejiang; a great transformation has already begun, we became active on equities. We backtrack two years perspective in trends,No directional errors.����Logical operation of the stock market does not in accordance with the cycle. Find development path of transformation of science and technology 1994; 2005 stock market under the economic end of historic value; in August 2009, the economic recovery, see stages of PB=2 and PB=1 at the top of the stock market means. ROE/one-year deposit rates, can be seen as the same type of fundingGold used in the production and the return of deposits, taking into account production at risk, yields more demanding. If ROE provided by listed companies at lower levels, such as close to one-year deposit rate, then PB=1 valuations are reasonable 2008 rate of return on equity (ROE) when =9, book value (PB) = 2 swtor power leveling, it can be seen as ROEThe bottom line. In interest rates and conversions between ROE PB reasonable position. (Excluding financial rate of return on equity, PetroChina's listed company) assumes that next year's rate of return on equity is 10, then for 3.5% deposit, equivalent to 2.85 times times PB. Which is equivalent to contain the listed company's overall net profit growth of around 20%. Cycle industriesAverage valuations are already twice times.����If the net interest rate decline of listed company 20%, then the probability of a rate cut policy appear larger. The next two years if the profit is the bottom range, but ROE would continue for over 9%, the whole economy very large probabilities in real transformation, finding arising from the restructuring of the new cycle. There are several key qAwareness of the problem: 1, how to look for in this growth momentum in the process of switching, steady growth and the growth of industries and companies, in accordance with the transition logic to investment. 2 price trends, real estate assets and Bank asset quality problems.����3 views, cycle stocks. If bottom 2013 still in profit, then cycle class sectors, and companies must have experienced market structureAdjustment, there will be some industry overall losses, enterprises were eliminated, industry consolidation, optimal maximum company to stay if Roe is above 9%, then certainly some steady growth in economic growth, in supporting economic growth, these are the best places to invest; real estate asset prices and the real estate market, IProvides several case studies: one for Japan, after real estate prices, necking development, supply reduction, after prices, spurred by increased demand, the real estate market reached a balance of regulation under the price. Real estate remains stable in 5 years, in which the Government tried to increase the supply of affordable housing. Korea on the fast through a period of real estate pricesAfter the rising, strict control measures, and developed a plan 2 million homes, one can see the real estate market is in a stable stage. Residential land prices in the back of 1975 after a brief decline, after stabilising slowly rising real estate prices 10%, keeping prices stable period of five years the old republic power leveling, residential development area and change the past growth, entered a period of stabilityIn our view, now expected of real estate stocks have reflected the fall in house prices 30%, this pessimistic view of the real estate market trend in the future, some elements of affecting the real estate market has not been altered: economic growth, income growth and demand. Bank's asset quality problems, if the local debt issuing scale for banks ' asset quality, and not tooConcerns. (Writer, analyst at guotai Junan policy)