129784668201616250_343Societe Generale securities: economic low tide period exports weak recovery
Medium-term (quarter): exports weak recovery does not change. At last week's weekly, we propose, in accordance with the "investment clock" method, the current domestic economy seem to be more like in "small decline" phase. But in the context of weaker domestic demand, exports weak recovery will remain unchanged. Mainly based on the following considerations: overseas economies slow recovery (United States as important engines) will boost China's exports, while peopleCurrency exchange rate change is expected to help some export enterprises exchange rate pressures. Short term (months): export risks remain. On one hand, United States recovery remains weak and Europe or will continue to toss, external demand will continue to wave the short term. The other hand
tera gold, from the Korea experience, although the March 20 days before export according to Korea's major trading partners (except Japan), United States, The eurozone
tera power leveling, Hong Kong exports rebound in growth trends, suggest improving trends in Chinese exports are more optimistic.
But which part of China's top 10 export growth has slowed, including textiles and clothing, iron and steel products, metal products, electronic equipment, such as, implying that some of China's export growth in the short term will also be low. Tracks of the week of mobility: caused by short-term factorsSurface tension of funds, falling growth and easing inflation down requirements to maintain funding moderately easy. This week
tera power leveling, the Central Bank cuts down the amount of circulation, achieving net placement, to stability Fund. Taking into account late deposit return and exchange financial funds face uncertain due to factors such as weak growth, required Central Bank reduced hedging. Tracks of the week of inflation: Ministry of Commerce high frequency price continued to drop,Period March CPI y/y 3.3%. Commerce high frequency price for 2 weeks back, the early rising vegetable prices continued to drop sharply. At the same time, pork prices to fall sharply, is expected there would be no significant development pressure in the first half, but later increased uncertainty. In addition, Manufacturing PMI purchasing price index points to the March PPI from the rebound, but compared to the negative.
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